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Nearly a quarter fear house prices will fall after Brexit vote

Consumer confidence in UK house price growth has fallen sharply following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, with almost a quarter of people surveyed now expecting property values where they live to fall over the next 12 months, a survey has revealed. 

The study, from ING, found that confidence had already been weakening prior to the EU referendum, but signs of slowing activity have intensified and sentiment has weakened since the EU vote.

A survey of 1,000 people in the weeks leading up to June’s referendum vote revealed that 57% expected home prices to increase in the next 12 months where they live and 6% predicted prices would fall.


However, a second survey of 1,000 people carried out in August, after the EU vote, found a major change in expectations, with 46% of people forecasting that residential property prices would rise in the next 12 months - the lowest proportion since the survey was first conducted in 2012 – while 22% predicted that there would be a decline in property values.

Previous research carried out for ING in the summer of 2015 found house price confidence had been much higher, with 70% of people at that time forecasting the house prices would increase where they lived in the year ahead.

The latest house price data released by Nationwide Building Society last week revealed that the average price of a home in the UK continued to increase in August, reaching a new record high of £206,145 on average, largely due to a tight supply of homes available for sale.

In addition to carrying out surveys of people in the UK, ING also asked people in 14 other countries in June about their house price expectations.

Across the European countries surveyed in June, 56% of consumers predicted house prices would increase where they live in the next 12 months. This figure was unchanged from the European average a year earlier.


  • Mark Hempshell

    An odd kind of survey!!! If you want to know how the property market will fare over the next decade ignore all the economists and analysts - just ask a thousand randoms off the street!

  • icon

    Talk about negative headlines!

    So if 22% think house prices will fall surely the headline should read 78% think house prices will remain stable or go up after Brexit.

  • MMi Legal

    As one of the largest conveyancing practices in Scotland, McVey and Murricane have been running a survey of clients as to their intentions in the housing market following Brexit.

    The survey is ongoing but at the moment, the current message is that Brexit has not changed intentions substantially. The survey suggests that around 10% of people are less likely to move from their current property because of concerns over Brexit. When the full results of our survey are known we will publish its results on our website at www.MMilegal.com.

    We also believe that there are material differences depending upon location. In our series on Brexit and the Scottish Property Market (http://www.mmilegal.com/a-10-seconds-survey-the-richest-neighbourhood-in-scotland-and-our-brexit-property-series-part-3/) we explain just how much government, regulatory and finance jobs support the Edinburgh area property market.

    McVey and Murricane, Solicitors


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