Consumer confidence in UK housing market settling into a new lower ‘normal’

Households’ expectations on UK house prices for the coming year remains rather subdued following the outcome of last year’s EU referendum, fresh research from mortgage lender Halifax shows.

According to the study, 58% of Britons predict that residential property prices will rise over the next 12 months, but most of these expect an increase of less than 5%. Some 23% of those surveyed expect prices to be unchanged, while 14% forecast a decline.

Although there was a marginal increase in the size of the majority expecting an increase in property values compared with the last study conducted in October 2016, the percentage remains significantly lower than the average level recorded in the three years leading up to last year’s vote to leave the European Union.

Most Britons’ remain relatively confident about the existing state of the UK economy, but many are concerned about the outlook moving forward, amid Brexit negotiations.

“House price optimism is little changed since the October 2016 measure, which is significant because it was the first post-Brexit survey and recorded the steepest fall since the tracker began,” said Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist.

“The latest results suggest that consumer confidence in the housing market is potentially settling into a new lower ‘normal’,” he added.