Annual rise of 2% in residential transactions is encouraging but real test yet to come
Experts have welcomed the latest increase in residential transactions reported by HMRC, but say the real market test will come later in the year.
UK residential transactions (seasonally adjusted) rose 2% higher in June 2026 than in the same month last year, up to 98,700, according to the latest figures from the HMRC National Statistics. They were marginally higher (less than 1%) than the month before.
Non-seasonally adjusted, the number of transactions in June rose 6% year on year to 103,050 and 11% up May 2026.
Ryan Brailsford, distribution director at Pepper Money, said the annual rise was a positive signal. “This time last summer, buyers were still adjusting to a run of much higher mortgage rates, and confidence across the market was noticeably fragile, so a step up on those numbers reflects a chunk of that adjustment now being absorbed.
“Mortgage approvals have picked up over recent months, and some lenders have adapted their affordability criteria to reflect changing market conditions, while continuing to apply robust checks. That’s translating into more people feeling able to commit to a move.”
Richard Pike, sales and marketing director at Phoebus Software agreed. “A modest uptick in June’s transactions fits with the wider picture we’re seeing elsewhere – inflation has cooled more than expected, mortgage approvals ticked up slightly in June’s money and credit data, and the year-on-year comparison should be less distorted now we’re 15 months on from last year’s stamp duty deadline.”
A note of caution
However, experts have warned caution. “I’d be cautious about reading too much into one month’s improvement,” continued Pike. “These figures reflect decisions made before recent rate increases, so doesn’t necessarily tell us much about appetite going into the autumn. Buyers and lenders alike are still navigating real uncertainty, and the next few months of data will tell us far more than this one.”
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at property data firm Search Acumen, said the real test for the remainder of 2026 will be how interest rates and therefore mortgages perform. However, he said the robust nature of the UK’s mainstream residential market shouldn’t be downplayed. “We saw this during lockdown, and we’re seeing it now, where despite doom-laden headlines, people continue to move home driven by life’s fundamental moments: growing families, changing careers, retirement and relocation.
“Crucially, the market has matured. The days of double-digit house price growth are largely behind us, and buyers are increasingly viewing property as a place to live rather than a vehicle for quick returns. That shift has created a more stable and sustainable market, underpinned by genuine demand rather than speculation.”
