Simon Cairnes, property expert at investment consultancy BuyAssociation, says lasting economic shifts and changing government policies are reshaping the housing market, as well as redefining who can buy, sell, and invest.
“Savills’ analysis predicts that house prices will rise modestly until 2028, before accelerating by 5.5% in 2029. By 2030, this trajectory would lift the national average to around £440,000.
“In terms of regional growth, Yorkshire and the Humber, alongside the North East, are forecast to see the strongest percentage increases, even outpacing London. This regional rebalancing reflects both affordability dynamics and shifting buyer preferences, with more people seeking value and quality of life outside the capital.
“Overall, Savills’ outlook offers valuable insights into emerging market trends, which can help investors and buyers make more informed, evidence-based decisions.”
“There are several reasons behind the projected rise in property values. One key factor is the growing speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves could announce major reforms to the property tax system in the upcoming Autumn Budget.
“Proposals include a 1% annual mansion tax on homes worth over £2 million, replacing stamp duty with an annual property levy, or even scrapping capital gains tax altogether. In the short term, market response to the Autumn Budget is likely to be the most significant influence on price trends.
“At the same time, the market remains supply-constrained, with demand outstripping supply. The number of new homes being built continues to fall short of demand, particularly in commuter towns and suburban areas, fuelling competition and pushing up prices.”
“For investors, rising prices can mean stronger capital returns, particularly in growth regions like the North East and Yorkshire.
“Buy-to-let remains viable, provided location is chosen strategically. University towns, regeneration zones, and rental hotspots, where rents are rising faster than property prices, continue to offer strong prospects. However, investors face rising entry costs, tighter margins, and ongoing uncertainty around tax and regulation.
“For those looking to sell their homes, stabilising demand and renewed price growth could offer stronger conditions to move up the ladder or release equity, particularly outside London, where momentum is building fastest.
“For homebuyers, the outlook is more challenging. The gap between incomes and house prices is at a record high, worsening affordability, especially for first-time buyers. Those with larger deposits will remain best placed, while borrowing costs will continue to dictate market activity.
“A future drop in interest rates could trigger a renewed wave of buyer demand. However, while schemes like Help to Buy might ease access for some, they also carry the risk of inflating prices even higher.
“As the decade unfolds, the balance of the UK housing market is clearly shifting. With policy reform on the horizon and regional hotspots leading the charge, adaptability and timing will define who benefits most from the next property cycle.”
