The number of new-build starts in Scotland has fallen by almost 12% according to analysis of the latest statistics by a leading property firm.
DJ Alexander Ltd, which is the largest lettings and estate agency in Scotland, said that the latest data from the Scottish Governments’ housing statistics quarterly update showed that new-build starts between Q4 2023 and Q3 2024 fell 1,954 (-11.6%) from 16,722 to 14,768 which is the lowest 12-month figure since 2013.
The drop in private sector new-builds was 1,959 (-14.3%) lower falling from 13,656 to 11,697. Even during the pandemic between Q4 2019 and Q3 2020 there were more starts when 12,933 were recorded. Although this figure represents a slowing in the decline in private sector new build starts it still indicates a substantially reduced number compared to recent years (full tables below).
The data for the social housing sector is almost completely static with just five more homes started during the same 12-month period rising from 3,066 to Q3 2023 to 3,071 by Q3 2024. This is the lowest number of social housing starts in a year since 2012 and is 3,817 (-55.4%) lower than the pre-pandemic level to year end Q3 2020.
David Alexander, the chief executive officer of DJ Alexander Scotland, comments: “These figures are deeply concerning at a time when a housing emergency has been declared and when demand from homebuyers and renters has never been greater. There should be rising volumes of housebuilding in both the private and social sectors if we are to address the enormous levels of demand in the housing market.
“Low volumes have contributed to the substantial house price rises we have seen in Scotland and, given this dip in private sector building, this is only likely to continue in the future. If supply remains subdued at the 2024 level, then there can only be one outcome which is greater demand leading to much greater price rises as the market struggles to increase supply.”
Alexander continues: “In the private rental market we have never experienced the present level of demand. We regularly have unprecedented numbers of people applying for properties without adequate supply to meet the needs of tenants. Given that the volume of social housing is already unable to meet the existing demand for homes, with hundreds of thousands on waiting lists, and tens of thousands homeless and in temporary accommodation, there is the very real possibility that these figures highlight just how much worse an already difficult market is going to get.
“Without a major investment in social housing, greater support for the private rental sector, and encouragement and more incentives for the housebuilding sector it is clear that tens of thousands of people living in Scotland are going to be unable to find a home to live in over the next few years.”
And he concludes: “At a time when more homes than ever are needed to meet growing demand in Scotland it is essential that everyone involved in the sector – from builders, investors, landlords, agents, governments, trade bodies, and official housing bodies – unites to develop a quick, effective, and functioning solution to this rapidly growing problem. Scotland needs to build more homes, and it needs to do it immediately.”
All sector new build starts 12-month figures
Q3 2024 Q3 2023 Q3 2022 Q3 2021 Q3 2020
14,768 16,722 22,255 22,512 19,821
Private sector new build starts 12-month figures
11,697 13,656 16,139 16,822 12,933
Social sector new build starts 12-month figures
3,071 3,066 6,116 5,690 6,888
