Global Housing Markets Pick Up

Average prices across 56 major global housing markets increased again last quarter, with average annual growth now at 3.9% across a basket of locations identified by property consultancy Knight Frank. 

This latest uptick means that prices are rising at their fastest rate since Q4 2022.

Of the 56 markets monitored, only 18 saw prices decline on an annual basis in Q4, a decrease from 21 in Q3. On a quarterly basis, prices dropped in 18 markets, down from 24 in the previous quarter.

The resurgence in house prices has led to positive real price growth, with a 0.1% increase in inflation-adjusted terms over the 12 months leading up to the end of Q4 2023.

Turkey continues to lead the index with an annual growth of 75.5%, although the quarterly rate of growth has significantly slowed. As Turkey experiences rapid inflation across its economy, adjusting for inflation shows that the real price growth amounted to just 6.5% in the year leading up to Q4.

Chile finds itself at the lower end of the table, experiencing significant annual declines, with prices falling 34.2% over the past 12 months. Luxembourg is the only other country witnessing double-digit price drops, grappling with high interest and mortgage rates.

Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, says: “The pattern is set for further price growth across the majority of global housing markets. Persistent low supply, combined with anticipated shift to lower interest rates in the latter half of this year, is expected to bolster buyer confidence and enhance affordability. However, as we approach 2025 and housing stock starts to accumulate, we anticipate a slowdown in price growth.”

Meanwhile housing markets in key global cities experienced strengthening annual growth in Q4, with average prices rising by 3%, up from 1.6% in Q3. This uptick in prices coincides with expectations of lower interest rates in the second half of 2024.

Knight Frank says house prices are climbing in the majority of cities covered by the index. Over 67% of markets witnessed price increases in Q4, a significant rise from 48% in Q1 of 2023. Just over 43% of markets are experiencing growth of up to 5%, while 18% are seeing growth above 5%.

Leading city markets are dominated by key Turkish cities, where substantial growth in Ankara and Istanbul is fuelled by high inflation in the broader economy. In the United States, low housing stock is bolstering prices in major cities. Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, New York, and Boston are all seeing annual growth exceeding 7%.

The weaker markets are primarily in Europe, with Luxembourg City and Lyon in France ranking lowest in the index.

With interest rates expected to decrease in the latter half of 2024, prices are anticipated to continue rising in most cities throughout this year and into 2025.

Bailey comments: “Global city housing markets have seen a noteworthy resurgence, with an average price increase of 3% in the 12-months to Q4 2023, a notable uptick from the 1.6% in the previous quarter. The anticipation of lower interest rates later this year, is reflected by 67% of markets seeing positive price growth in the past year. The outlook for home owners remains optimistic, with further price growth expected this year. The increase in housing inventory which should accompany lower debt costs has the potential to weigh on price growth by the year end.”