How will the UK residential rental market develop up to 2030?

Zero Deposit has analysed historic rental data from the Office for National Statistics for each region of England, to forecast what the average renting may be by 2030.

Current picture - Currently, the average tenant across England is paying £994 per month in rent. This cost has climbed by five per cent in the last year alone and 37 per cent since 2013. London is not only home to the highest average cost of renting at £1,873 per month, but this cost has climbed by 12 per cent, or £201 per month, in a single year (2022 vs 2023).

In fact, every region of England has seen the cost of renting climb between 2022 and 2023, putting further financial pressure on renters across the nation.

Rental market forecast - Based on historic trends, Zero Deposit estimates that the average rent across England could climb to £1,150 per month by 2030, an increase of 16 per cent that would add £156 to the monthly cost of renting.

London would remain by far the least affordable area of the rental market, with a forecasted 12 per cent increase expected to add £234 to the cost of renting, pushing the average monthly rent to £2,107.

However, it’s the East Midlands that is forecast to see the largest jump. Zero Deposit estimates that the average monthly cost of renting across the region could climb by a staggering 41 per cent by 2030, an increase of £307 per month.

The reason behind this expected increase could be down to a dwindling level of PRS stock. Since 2018, PRS stock as a percentage of all dwellings within the East Midlands region has declined from 18.7 to 17.3 per cent in today’s climate (2022 - latest available). 

Just one other region has seen a similar reduction of more than one per cent, the South West, where PRS stock as a percentage of all homes has fallen from 19.4 to 18.1 per cent.  No surprise then, that the South West is forecast to see the second largest rental cost increase by 2023, with the average cost of renting climbing by £382 per month - a jump of 39 per cent.

The East of England is also expected to see a significant jump, with the average rent climbing by 29 per cent or £291 per month. 

Yorkshire and the Humber is forecast to see the most marginal increase, although rents are still expected to climb by nine per cent across the region, adding £66 per month to the existing cost.