House prices in the world’s major property investment centres remain robust in the face of higher debt costs, with average annual price growth across the 56 markets covered by Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index at 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to September.
That’s up from 2.2 per cent in the previous quarter and close to the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 3.7 per cent.
Of the 56 markets monitored, 35 experienced annual price growth, while 21 witnessed declines.
The rate of price growth reached a peak of 10.9 per cent in Q1 2022 but sharply slowed to 2.2 per cent in Q2 of this year. But now it’s shown an upturn and Knight Frank says this indicates strengthening price growth in several markets, including Ireland, Sweden, the UK and the US.
Remarkably, despite the fastest rise in interest rates in history, residential prices only dipped slightly at the beginning of this year, and have since resumed growth; the agency says the resilience of house prices can be attributed to limited available stock, increased household savings and robust wage growth.
The primary concern for markets however, arising from the resilience of house prices is the slower recovery of sales volumes.
Across developed economies, sales have declined by 15 to 25 per cent from their recent peaks. The absence of a pricing correction indicates that this constraint on activity is expected to persist, likely through 2024 and potentially well into 2025. Activity is anticipated to rebound only when rates are substantially lowered
Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, says: “The resilience of global house prices is surprising in light of rising costs for mortgage borrowers, however strong savings, above inflation pay settlements and low supply of stock for sale are all acting as market supports. The big issue for housing markets in 2024 will remain low market liquidity, with sales volumes down by up to a quarter compared to their recent peaks – only a shift to lower interest rates will lift sales activity.”
Turkey has held the top spot in Knight Frank’s rankings since Q1 2020 and once again sees the strongest growth with an annual (and amazing) 89.2 per cent, and quarterly 18.1 per cent increase.
Indeed south-eastern Europe dominates the top five spots with Greece on 14.0 per cent, Croatia 13.7 per cent and North Macedonia (11.0 per cent) all showing robust annual growth.
Japan is the standout performer in the Asia-Pacific region, with 6.3 per cent annual growth, followed by India on 5.9 per cent.
In the United States, house prices experienced a 1.3 per cent uptick in Q3, driven by rising mortgage rates, leading to affordability challenges, as well as high demand and limited supply underpinning pricing.
At the bottom of the Knight Frank ranking sits Sweden, Slovakia, Finland and Hong Kong all experiencing falling prices of between eight and 11 per cent. As Sweden tackles an economic recession and rising borrowing costs, housing prices in the Nordic nation have once again entered an annual downward trajectory.
