Historical market trends infer that a good World Cup performance by the England team usually correlates to a boost in house prices.
By comparing and contrasting historic housing market trends Barrows and Forrester were able to come to this conclusion.
The level of inflation-adjusted house price growth across the English market and how this rate of growth differed depending on England’s previous World Cup performances was analysed.
Failing to qualify for the World Cup
According to the date, the most muted housing market performance was shown during the years the team failed to qualify. This was the case in In 1974, 1978, and 1994.
During years in which England didn’t make it to the World Cup, there was an increase of just 0.8% on average. Whereas years where the England team has made it to the initial stages of the tournament, and into the last 16, house prices have increased by an average of 2.8%.
In years where England has reached the quarter or semi-finals of a World Cup, house prices have increased by an average of 5.3% since 1970.
If England makes it to the final
In 1966 England achieved victory, making this scenario the best example to determine what success could mean for the market.
England’s ‘66 success was followed by positive house price growth, but values increased by just 3.6%. This is 1.3% less than price growth for a quarter or semi-final elimination.
England’s top property performers since the last World Cup, include North Devon with house prices up by 60.3% since June 2018, Rochdale (+49.2%), Tameside (48%), Oldham (46.6%), and Cotswold (+45.9%).
Managing director of Barrows and Forrester, James Forrester, commented: “If England enjoys success at this World Cup, historic trends suggest it could be good news for homeowners with house prices likely to rise by a good chunk should they make the finals stage of the tournament.”
“Of course, regardless of England’s on-pitch ability, back at home we’re dealing with a tricky economic situation and cannot rely on the positive sentiment of a good World Cup run to help stimulate the housing market.”
“Having said that, Gareth Southgate himself could have done a better job at handling the economy compared to some of our most recent ministerial offerings and so maybe he is the man to help keep house prices buoyant.”