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House prices predicted to end 2019 at 4% annual growth

House prices in England and Wales are set to end the year 4.1% higher than at the end of 2018, reallymoving’s House Price Forecast for November anticipates.

The comparison site is able to provide an accurate three-month property price forecast based on the purchase price agreed in August, September and October 2019, which will complete over the next three months.

Monthly price changes

Average prices in England and Wales are expected to dip by 0.3% in November and 1.1% in December, with 0% growth forecast in January 2020.

Despite the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit, buyers and sellers who need to move have pressed ahead to agree deals, with values peaking later than usual in October and tailing off towards the end of the year.

The latest data from HMRC shows a small increase in transaction levels in September, rising 5% from August and 2.3% from September last year. reallymoving says this indicates a steady demand from home movers who need to move for work, family or financial reasons is continuing to support prices.

Annual price changes

On an annual basis, house prices have performed better than expected throughout 2019, recording annual growth of 4.8% in October and November – the highest level seen since March 2016.

Average house prices are predicted to end the year at £299,705 in December, compared with £287,901 twelve months prior. This trend is supported by the most recent Land Registry Price Paid Data, which showed 2.3% annual growth in September 2019.

What’s more, underlying conditions in the wider economy – such as low unemployment, low interest rates and rising household incomes – continue to support steady year-on-year growth.

Rob Houghton, chief executive officer of reallymoving, comments: “Most regions of the UK are set to see prices dip over the final quarter of the year which is partly down to seasonality.”

“It’s fair to say 2019 was never going to be a stellar year for the housing market but despite consumer confidence taking a battering, house prices in England and Wales are on course to end the year 4% higher than at the end of 2018, which supports our belief that the underlying value of property remains fundamentally stable.”

He concludes: “The political situation now is as uncertain as ever with a General Election just a few weeks away, but the figures indicate that the market will continue bumping along in much the same manner as we head into the new decade.”

The graph below shows the reallymoving House Price Index for England and Wales, including the three-month price forecast:

House prices predicted to end 2019 at 4% annual growth

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