Britain is on the verge of recession following the UK’s decision to exit the European Union last month, according to the latest forecasts from bankers at Barclays.
With political and economic uncertainty continuing to grow, the bank’s latest chartbook of economic indicators for the UK suggests that the country will almost certainly fall into recession by the end of the year, with growth falling by 0.1%.
Even with a new Prime Minister in place, the country’s political and economic future remains unclear, and the bank forecasts that this will have an adverse impact on confidence, restrict investment, and ultimately weaken the economic picture.
As Barclays notes: “We expect that spiralling uncertainty will adversely affect firm and household confidence, forcing them to be more cautious and hold back on spending, following the UK vote to leave the EU at the 23 June referendum.”
It continues: “We expect the aforementioned spiralling uncertainty to push the UK economy into recession from H2 16. We forecast headline GDP growth will average -0.1% q/q in H2 16 and 2017, primarily due to a marked contraction in fixed investment, which had already been slowing in the run-up to the referendum (Figure 6). We believe it will contract in almost each quarter of our forecast horizon, resulting in an average of -0.5% q/q over H2 16 and 2017.”